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Prediction for CME (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-15T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30075/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T04:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T22:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30081/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=724.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2024-04-15T10:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-17T22:44Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.7
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-17T21:23Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240415_105200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 81.42 hour(s)
Difference: 30.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-04-15T19:28Z

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